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State of Solar 2026

  • Writer: Andrew Birch ("Birchy")
    Andrew Birch ("Birchy")
  • 5 days ago
  • 2 min read

Updated: 16 hours ago


After 5 years of 32% compound annual growth, solar will hit 3TW of cumulative installs next month. It is en route to supplying over 10% of the world’s electricity in 2026 and over half of global energy needs within the next decade.


The 2025 Contraction


OpenSolar analysis suggests 2025 saw the first annual decline in global installations in 24 years, falling 2% to 582GW. This was led by a significant drop in China, which halved its domestic installation rate in the second half of the year.

Note: Bloomberg New Energy Finance and other forecasts appear inflated due to a focus on factory gate sales, which overstate end-demand as stockpiling ahead of Chinese VAT rises artificially boosts figures.


2026 Outlook: A Further 12% Drop


OpenSolar forecasts a further 12% decline to 514GW in 2026, driven by:

  • A lower domestic Chinese run-rate.

  • Rising panel costs due to April’s increased VAT on exported Chinese panels and mandated poly-price supply controls.

  • Grid constraints and restrictive policies globally, especially in India and Europe.

  • A weak US market resulting from anti-solar federal energy policies.


2027 Rebound & The Energy Gap


We expect a return to customer-driven demand in 2027. There is a high probability of large electricity price rises in wholesale and retail markets through 2026–2027 due to 4–5% annual demand growth paired with a lack of supply.

  • Recovery: Growth is expected to pick up in late 2026.

  • Growth Spurt: We forecast 30%+ growth in 2027, returning to a 25%+ steady rate thereafter.


Residential Solar & Storage


Residential solar’s grew 13% to 163GW in 2025 (28% of total solar GW), adding 38m new solar homes. Growth in Asia and LatAm is currently offsetting weakness in Europe, the US, and until recently in Australia.

  • Battery Integration: Residential battery attachment rates are hitting 90% in mature markets.

  • Policy Impact: Despite the dip, solar remains on track to reach 50% of the world’s energy by 2037. However, bad domestic policies in 2025–2026 have resulted in two crucial lost years of scaling.


The Path Forward

Solar with storage is the lowest-cost, most scalable solution globally. To thrive, it requires:

  1. The removal of CleanTech tariffs and tax equality in energy markets.

  2. The elimination of red tape in permitting and grid connection.

  3. Open grid access for all technology sizes to ensure the lowest-cost solutions.


In short: Solar and storage simply need an open market and a level playing field.


Download the full report for an in-depth look at these country-specific metrics:


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